Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Nov-18: "Wave at Bernie" 103-kms

"Wave at Bernie"
Gives one the opportunity to wave at Bernie Madoff
As one rides by his current residence.
Probably not the finger many would "wave" at Bernie.  I was actually asking for a moment to compose myself for the intended photos. 
In case you don't know, Bernie currently resides in the Federal Correctional Facility near Butner, NC.  A small variant of the Bahama Beach 103k 'free-route' Permanent Populaire passes directly in front of said facility.

Nice afternoon it was to have been on the bike. 

I'm not mentioning my ride partner / photographer as he often comments that he has to be careful because I'm "the associated press."  Ha!  Certainly not this ride.

--> Bahama Beach 103k Perm-Pop, "Wave at Bernie" variant -->; 88.5 m.;  5h51 in-motion; 15.1 mph.
 - pre-ride commute:  10.4 m.;  0h44 in-motion; 14.1 mph.
 - - BB:  68.0 m.;  4h26 in-motion; 15.3 mph; BB elapsed time:  4h58.
 - - - post-ride commute:  10.1 m.;  0h41 in-motion; 14.6 mph.

Q-1 tot: _11 rides; _940.3 m; _64h42; 14.5 mph; 1275 RUSA kms.
Q-2 tot: _18 rides; 2293.9 m; 158h18; 14.5 mph; 3142 RUSA kms.
Q-3 tot: _19 rides; 2027.8 m; 134h34; 15.1 mph; 2383 RUSA kms. 

Oct tot: __3 rides; _366.6 m; _24h16; 15.1 mph; _348 RUSA kms. 
Nov tot: __3 rides; _350.1 m; _25h05; 14.5 mph; _513 RUSA kms.  
YTD tot: _54 rides; 5978.7 m; 405h58; 14.7 mph; 7661 RUSA kms. 

P-23, i.e., 23 consecutive months with at least one qualifying RUSA populaire.  
M-57, C-45, R-40 earlier in the month.   

xxx, yyy, zzz. 

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Nov-16: The 'Road to Hicksboro' 205

I was gonna' write about: Could an out-of-shape fixie-boy and
An out-of-shape many-geared old-guy 
Do a many rollered 200k together and 
Finish in under 10 hours?  

But my available rando time the next few days is suddenly committed to something else, so ...  
I'm just going to use the text of an email I sent to a friend that did the "Old Liberty" perm. 
Because this is essentially a copy of an email to a friend, some things that might normally get a better explanation, don't. 

The replacement of the bridge on Cornwallis Rd connecting Mountain Creek Rd to Little Mountain Creek Rd has been completed.  No detour needed.  No getting one's shoes muddy walking across the not quite completed bridge.  ...  On this ride, Ian and I decided it was a good place to take an extra 5 to 7 minute break; the barrier was just the right height for leaning one's bike against and also for sitting upon.
Ian was convinced by the time we got to the first control that we'd be finishing in the dark.
We didn't dally at controls, but we didn't hurry, either.
The store in Stovall was jammed with Lottery ticket buyers.  I thought we'd never get out of there, and Ian definitely needed some food -- he got tater-tots and hash browns -- took forever to get because the person preparing that for him had to go to the front register to rescue the clerk that was overwhelmed, mostly due to inexperience, it seemed.

We got to the Dabney control at 2:10 pm.
I looked at my watch and told Ian that we would certainly beat the Dark Monster and probably finish under 10-hours, as we only had 38 more miles to go.
Ian said, "38-miles in 2 hours?! ... Oh, 3 hours -- okay."

We passed the model airplane airport at about 3:30 pm, getting our first sunshine of the day,
While watching the one plane do acrobatics. 
The sun did come out in force for a bit, but then started to sprint for the horizon.
We got to Pokomoke at about 3:53, I told Ian we would almost certainly be done before 5:00,
Telling him I have recently done the remaining 16.2-miles between 54 and 68 minutes.

I tried to to time-trial in on Bruce Garner, etc., but I didn't have the legs to maintain anything up any incline.
Took me nearly 24-minutes to get from the bottom of Ghoston to the stop sign near PUE (4.6-miles).
Earlier this year, I did that a couple times in 18:15 and 18:12.
Yeah, I was tired / had no legs.
Despite that, we officially finished at 4:58 pm.

Ian was on his fixie.
He doesn't like the handlebars currently on that steed.
His left achillies was bothering him quite a bit, esp. later in the ride.
However, in general, he did start feeling better later in the ride.

For the first two-thirds of the ride, when I would re-catch him (he'd drop me every climb, I would usually drop him on the descents), I would zip around him.  Late in the ride, he started doing an "Ian tactic," that is, he wouldn't let me pass him.  I finally mentioned that I knew he was feeling better because of the aforementioned.  He responded that he was feeling much better, except for the achillies.

R-44 for Ian.
He figures to take "30 days" away from the bike before trying to get his December R-ride.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

RUSA Retention -- Some Data

Occasionally (meaning not so often that I can use the adjective "periodically"), my friend Bob will mention concerns regarding the retention of new RUSA members.  For example, of the 34 North Carolinians that first joined RUSA in 2010 (which is when Bob and I joined RUSA), only 10 appear to still be active. 

What is the usual retention rate of new RUSA members?
And ... there is a whole series of questions that can open up after that initial question;
However, I won't attempt to list them ... now.
Because the first thing to do is find some data that would address the initial question:
What is the usual retention rate of new RUSA members?

I'm informed that the RUSA database may have the date when an individual first joined RUSA.
However, I don't have access to the database.
Luckily, one doesn't really need to access the database to get some good data on retention, 
Because on the RUSA website, in the RBA resources section, there are Excel compatible files
That include all RUSA members by RUSA number, and
Indicates their last renewal date (which I typically refer to below as "termination date").

A comment on "last renewal date" --
I understand that RUSA does not track intermittent membership dates--
Some stop being members for awhile, return, leave, return, rinse, repeat.
Tracking that would require a lot more effort and resources
Than is needed to answer the question that RBAs and Perm-route-owners need to know:
Namely, "is the person currently a member?"
(Since the intermittent information is not needed, there is no need to retain it.) 

The information in the aforementioned files does NOT include the date when someone first joined RUSA.
However, one's RUSA number is a decent substitute.
At least I assert that it will suffice for looking at longitudinal retention rates. 

Okay, enough with the gibberish.
Here is a chart, organized by 1000-cohorts,
Showing the distribution of termination dates within each cohort.

RUSA #s -- Termination date within "1000 number" cohorts

Term Date 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Term'd
12/31/1999 211

211 PBP year
12/31/2000 71 13

12/31/2001 31 54

12/31/2002 35 92 1

12/31/2003 89 225 132

446 PBP year
12/31/2004 26 82 135

12/31/2005 21 36 151 40

12/31/2006 27 35 62 143

12/31/2007 74 85 102 223 264

748 PBP year
12/31/2008 33 28 42 89 197 48

12/31/2009 28 31 36 76 85 218

12/31/2010 22 26 26 45 68 171 146

12/31/2011 43 46 43 54 62 85 297 41
671 PBP year
12/31/2012 37 44 48 53 50 110 138 407 14 901
12/31/2013 149 115 147 162 182 227 276 401 785 2,444
12/31/2014 49 49 54 67 53 95 98 119 130 103 817
12/31/2015 44 31 17 36 33 40 37 30 64 11 343 PBP year
12/31/2016 3 6 2 7 6 5 8 2 6 7 52
12/31/2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
beyond 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
total 993 998 998 996 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 121 9,106
active 245 201 220 273 274 367 419 552 986 121 3,658

  • Note that the above data was obtained from the RUSA website on Nov-13-2013. 
  • I expect that approx 2/3 of the members currently shown with a termination date of 2013 will renew their memberships (most before the end of the year). 
  • You may notice that there are 15 member numbers missing from the first 4000. I don't know why, but some numbers were either skipped, or perhaps provisionally issued and then reversed.  I have not attempted to learn the specifics.  Those situations have a negligible impact on the data (and any subsequent analysis). 
  • You may notice that one person in the 5000-5999 cohort is shown as having a last terminated date prior to when that RUSA number would have been issued.  That actually gives me some comfort -- any database worth its salt ought to have an error or two embedded in it somewhere. 
It is my intention to limit this post to the publication of the data.
Any subsequent "analysis" will come in later posts.

If you have any analysis-type questions that come to your mind when you see the above,
Please leave a comment with said question.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Nov-09: Chilly L-L-L 205-km Perm

"In" Mt. Tirzah, 89-miles down, 38-to-go:
Bob commented that previous time he did Triple-L, there was some good chilli at Hollow Ridge Grocery.
This time, no chilli.
Only chilly conditions all day.

Ricochet Robert had "the music in him" today.
He rode off, with our blessing, from the turnaround in Leasburg, just a minute after we arrived. 
Reportedly 9h35 for R-26 (though if he doesn't soon apply for his R-24, I may ignore his R-rides :-O ).

I did not have any music in me on the day.
About 21-miles into the ride, I commented that
The early climbs on Triple-L route were a lot tougher than early climbs on the Bahama Beach route.
However, fast-forwarding, I may have found some cadence during the final 17-miles.
Thanks to Bob -- R-40-continuous for me.
Approx 10h45.

Bob slowed and waited for me.
Several times.
Maybe more than several.
R-47-continuous for Bob, as he continues to lead the NC-2010-rookies on that front.
[I mention the NC-2010-rookies because Bob asked if I planned on doing an update early in 2014.]
Also 10h45 for Bob.

According to Bob's confuser, the two of did the 127.6-mile (205-km) route in 9h16 in-motion.
I guess that is what doing too few rides, and not hard enough, will do.