Thursday, January 28, 2021

Comparing 2021 RWGPS to 2013 RWGPS, Part 2

I decided to have a look at the change in the RWGPS climbing estimates for the "Bahama Beach" perm-pop. 
Using the same 'free-route' variants viewed in 2013. 
 
I know that (several years ago) RWGPS modified their algorithms to estimate gross climbing. 
 
On a bicycle forum and/or the randon-google-group-list-serve, 
I have mentioned the change in the RWGPS algorithms 
Which, it is my opinion, made the estimates for rolling hill routes less accurate 
While possibly maintaining the quality of the estimates for climbing mountains,
But I have no mountain route data to examine / compare. 
 
At least one person parroted the RWGPS propoganda 
That the change was so that their estimates would more closely reflect 
The climbing reported by Garmin and other GPS devices. 
 
I responded that I did not accept that RWGPS explanation because 
As best I can recall, every person that has ridden the "Bahama Beach" standard route 
With a GPS device reported climbing estimates ranging from 3200 to 3900 feet. 
 
Below is reproduced most of the chart from 2013, 
Followed by a revised chart showing the figures RWGPS reports today. 
And the total comparison summarized below that. 
 
The change ("reduction") varies only slightly by variant. 
After all, most of the route for each of the noted variants is the same. 
The average reduction of 19% is nothing to be sneezed at (i.e., ignored). 
 
Oh, as I have been known to say and/or type: 
NONE of the climbing estimates from ANY of the sources can be deemed "accurate." 
They can, however, provide some amusement as one or a group compares routes.  
 

2013 RWGPS gross climbing estimates





Route Name start miles RWGPS ft/m
5 Bahama Beach (std rte) Bay Leaf, NC 64.6 3,587 55.5
6 Bahama Beach - "Wave at Bernie" v.1 Bay Leaf, NC 68.0 3,771 55.5
1 Bahama Beach - "Taste of Johnson Mill Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 71.1 4,215 59.3
8 Bahama Beach - "Hall Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 65.1 3,583 55.0
7 Bahama Beach - "Mt. Tabor / Hampton Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 66.1 3,644 55.1
4 Bahama Beach - "3 Hayes" Bay Leaf, NC 65.9 3,690 56.0
3 Bahama Beach - "Mangum Dairy" Bay Leaf, NC 69.8 4,017 57.6
2 Bahama Beach - "Bold Run + Mangum Dairy" Bay Leaf, NC 72.2 4,205 58.2















2021 RWGPS gross climbing estimates





Route Name start location miles RWGPS ft/m reduced
6 Bahama Beach (std rte) Bay Leaf, NC 64.6 2,918 45.2 19%
4 Bahama Beach - "Wave at Bernie" v.1 Bay Leaf, NC 68.0 3,081 45.3 18%
2 Bahama Beach - "Taste of Johnson Mill Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 71.1 3,349 47.1 21%
8 Bahama Beach - "Hall Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 65.1 2,916 44.8 19%
7 Bahama Beach - "Mt. Tabor / Hampton Rd" Bay Leaf, NC 66.1 2,977 45.0 18%
5 Bahama Beach - "3 Hayes" Bay Leaf, NC 65.9 2,985 45.3 19%
1 Bahama Beach - "Mangum Dairy" Bay Leaf, NC 69.8 3,302 47.3 18%
3 Bahama Beach - "Bold Run + Mangum Dairy" Bay Leaf, NC 72.2 3,387 46.9 19%








"2013" sum
542.8 30,712 56.6

"2021" sum
542.8 24,915 45.9 19%

 -- std deviation of the "reductions" reported --



1%
 
 
BTW, I never did get around to riding the "Johnson Mill Rd," the "Mangum Dairy," and the "Bold Run + Mangum Dairy" routes for RUSA km credit.  However, now I am thinking of giving those audacious routes "a go" since I won't feel the need to keep the actual route ridden close to the 103-kms perm-pop credit.  
 

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Re: Woohoo! 3.2-miles today!

On Wednesday, January 27, 2021, 10:40:37 PM EST, <skiffrun> wrote:


Took some papers (one I had printed and the other was a "get well" card delivered in my care) over to Lynn's today. 
 
It is 1.6 flat miles each way to and from Lynn's (or at least it is the way I rode today and have been riding it for at least a couple years -- I used to "cut through" using some neighborhood streets and that way has three notable inclines each direction, but the distance is the same).  
 
As usual, I stood the entire way there and the entire way back.  9:28 (that's m:ss) in-motion to get there -- and that includes SLOWLY navigating past and through a LOT of cars lined up to get into Ravenscroft (meaning I had to slow down and weave my way through and around) and also a lot trying to get back out -- the line to get into Ravenscroft was backed up onto Fall of the Neuse Rd!!  Also, on the way to Lynn's, there was a phone "repair" vehicle parked squarely on the sidewalk, so I had to de tour in the VERY SOFT grass / turf beside the sidewalk, and that was rather interesting as I had to power my through the VERY SOFT stuff with my pace cut by two-thirds or more.
 
9:34 (that's m:ss) in-motion to get back -- there was a bit of a headwind and I had to "navigate" (in this case, slow down) to avoid being in the same place at the same time as a mini-van), so that combination clearly added a whopping 6 seconds in-motion to the ride time. 
 
So, total 3.2 miles in 19:02 in-motion (just to remind you, that's mm:ss).  
 
I have never "counted" / recorded the errand rides to and from Lynn's, nor to the bank, nor have I ever "counted" / recorded the former 1.1-miles each way that was my work commute.  But maybe I'll "count" / record them this year (just for kicks?).  
 
Btw, it is sometimes faster to cycle the 1.6-miles than it is to drive it.  That is particularly likely to be the case during business and/or church "rush hour" time-frames and also during Ravenscroft rush-hours. 
 
Enjoy the ride, 
...Martin
 

Comparing 2021 RWGPS to 2013 RWGPS

Probably because I was wasting time instead of doing what I should have been, 
I stumbled across this post from 2013:  "Johnson Mill Jaunt." 
 
While there is some amusing stuff near the bottom end of that 2013 post, 
[And make no mistake, I immediately shared that post with the "Irregulars" and 
Levi, the butt of the humor, responded to all of us with a "big fun" email.] 
The thing that drew my attention was the chart of RWGPS reported climbing per mile. 
 
I know / knew that RWGPS had modified their algorithms to estimate gross climbing, 
But until stumbling across the 2013 post, I didn't recall where to find evidence from before the change. 
 
On a bicycle forum and/or the randon-google-group-list-serve, 
I have mentioned the change in the RWGPS algorithms 
Which, it is my opinion, made the estimates for rolling hill routes less accurate 
While possibly maintaining the quality of the estimates for climbing mountains. 
 
At least one person parroted the RWGPS propoganda 
That the change was so that their estimates would more closely reflect 
The climbing reported by Garmin and other GPS devices. 
 
I responded with a politer version of "hogwash." 
As best I can recall, every person that has ridden the "Bahama Beach" route 
With a GPS device has reported climbing estimates ranging from 3200 to 3900 feet. 
The middling estimates of around 3500 to 3600 seem most frequent (and reasonable). 
 
Below is the reproduced chart from 2013, 
Followed by a revised chart showing the figures RWGPS reports today. 
And the total comparison summarized below that. 
 
The change ("reduction") varies considerably by route, but 
The average reduction of 23% is nothing to be sneezed at (i.e., ignored). 
 
Oh, as I have been known to say and/or type: 
NONE of the climbing estimates from ANY of the sources can be deemed "accurate." 
They can, however, provide some amusement as one or a group compares routes. 
 

Route Name 2013 chart
miles RWGPS ft/m
1  -- errand ride -- Raleigh, NC 48.2 3,257 67.6
2 Rp - L-L-L Permanent Raleigh, NC 127.1 8,093 63.7
3 R - NCBC 400k Brevet (2013) Morrisville, NC 249.4 14,981 60.1
4 R - NCBC 300k Brevet (2013) Morrisville, NC 189.9 10,818 57.0
5 IR - Johnson Mill Jaunt Bay Leaf, NC 81.9 4,625 56.5
6 Rpp - Bahama Beach (std rte)
Bay Leaf, NC 64.6 3,587 55.5
7 Rpp - Howling Grits Chatham, NC 64.3 3,567 55.5















Route Name 2021 chart
miles RWGPS ft/m reduced
1  -- errand ride -- Raleigh, NC
 -- map not saved / no update --

2 Rp - L-L-L Permanent Raleigh, NC 127.1 6,429 50.6 21%
5 R - NCBC 400k Brevet (2013) Morrisville, NC 249.3 11,191 44.9 25%
7 R - NCBC 300k Brevet (2013) Morrisville, NC 189.9 7,845 41.3 27%
3 IR - Johnson Mill Jaunt Bay Leaf, NC 81.9 3,885 47.4 16%
4 Rpp - Bahama Beach (std rte)
Bay Leaf, NC 64.6 2,918 45.2 19%
6 Rpp - Howling Grits Chatham, NC 64.3 2,810 43.7 21%








2013 sum, excl "errand ride"
777.2 45,671 58.8

2021 sum, excl "errand ride" 777.1 35,078 45.1 23%

 -- standard deviation of the six "reductions" reported --
4%
 

Thursday, January 21, 2021

Thoughts (On Creating a 600k Route) That I Felt To "Keep Handy"

On Wednesday, January 20, 2021, 11:09:40 PM EST, MartinS_ <skiffrun> wrote:


Typing the following while watching the Wednesday evening / night TCM presentation of mysteries -- tonight, showing Miss Marple -- currently "Murder at the Gallop."  
 
Sometime in 2019, I started thinking about a 600k based on the Badgett Sisters 200, the companion 300k, and also the companion 400.  The 400 was Dayton's idea -- stitch his Clarksville populaire onto the 300. 

The Badgett Sisters "200" -- which was a Perm and also approved as a Brevet (during the first Perms suspension). 

The companion 300, "3-Lake-300" was officially ridden only once.  I intended to get around to riding it.  And now, assuming all is well in my life come mid-to-late Spring, when it might be warm enough and certainly there are long days, I might definitely set out to ride it.  
- ( "3-Lake-300" ) 

The companion 400, "4-Lake-400" was never ridden.  
- ( "4-Lake-400" ) 

And now to the point of this email.  I started fiddling around in 2019 with making a 600 to go with the 2, 3, and 4.  As Tony once mentioned regarding 1200's, or was regarding 600's, or both -- figure out the overnight motel stops, and then make a route to connect them.  Figuring an overnight for the potential 600 proved a bit problematic, but I was convinced that South Hill would be a place with options for overnight accommodations.  Several options -- all rather expensive (to my mind, anyway).  I forget how much Alan pays for the White Lake control, but it isn't exactly cheap given the accommodations.   

I tried looking at quite a few alternatives to South Hill -- Clarksville, Roanoke Rapids come to mind -- I didn't check Warrenton, but maybe I should have.  But South Hill may be the best option for such a 600 as I describe. 

The other day, I decided to trace out a possible bicycle ride to check out that "hook" one can see on that potential 600.  And as I tried to figure out a possible check-it-out ride, I realized that the entire potential 600 is either part of a Perm or been used by Tony as part of a 1200 -- except for the roughly 25 miles from Gasburg to South Hill. 
- - Long ride just to check out 25-miles, but cycling a road often informs one of so much more than simply driving it. 


Miss Marple has moved along pretty well, but the main thing that has happened so far is that the list of suspects keeps being cut down because they are being killed off.  Only 2 or 3 suspects left -- the movie has fewer than 15-minutes to run, so I reckon it will all be resolved quite soon. 

Enjoy the ride, 
...Martin 


p.s.  It wasn't any of those on the suspects list.  It was the maid.  Haha!

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Time To Get Serious About 2021 Brevets

I figure to do the Raleigh Region Brevets, limited though the currently scheduled rides may be. 
I don't plan to do any of the Asheville Region rides. 
I currently do not imagine doing any of the Tidewater Region rides, but my imagination could change. 
 
The chart below shows the currently scheduled North Carolina ( + Tidewater ) rides. 
 
2021 North Carolina ( + Tidewater ) Brevets as Scheduled















Location Type Date Kms Route Contact Web Site
NC: Raleigh ACP brevet 4/24/2021 200 227 Alan info
NC: Raleigh ACP brevet 5/15/2021 300 228 Alan info
NC: Raleigh ACP brevet 9/11/2021 200 227 Alan info














NC: High Point  ---  no rides scheduled  --- 
Tony info














NC: Asheville ACP fl├Ęche 4/9/2021 360   Luke info
NC: Asheville ACP brevet 5/8/2021 200   Luke info
NC: Asheville ACP brevet 5/22/2021 300   Luke info
NC: Asheville ACP brevet 6/12/2021 400   Luke info
NC: Asheville ACP brevet 6/26/2021 600   Luke info
NC: Asheville ACP brevet 9/11/2021 200   Luke info














VA: Tidewater ACP brevet 3/20/2021 200 Suffolk-Drewryville 200 Keith info
VA: Tidewater ACP brevet 4/10/2021 300 Suffolk-Jarret 300K Keith info
VA: Tidewater ACP brevet 4/24/2021 400 Suffolk-Lawrenceville 400 Keith info
VA: Tidewater ACP brevet 5/29/2021 600 Suffolk 600k Keith info
VA: Tidewater ACP brevet 9/11/2021 200 Suffolk-Drewryville 200 Keith info
 
 
I think it is time for me to get serious about "training" for the Raleigh-Region April 200. 
 
 
[I could make comments about the various thinking of Alan, Tony, and Keith as I understand said thoughts as I  have had chats (or email exchanges, or have read their high-level comments on Facebook), but I just don't feel in the mood to do so.] 
 
[BTW, with luck, a reader will be able to click on the routes, the names of the RBAs and the associated "info" "words" to get more information and/or contact the appropriate RBA.] 
   

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Year-End Retrospective, Part 2

 "Lifetime" Miles        
17 1,202 79,551.0 5,395.7 14.74 66.2
year # rides miles hrs.frac pace mi. / ride
2004 38 1,176.2 86.5 13.60 31.0
2005 37 1,265.5 91.8 13.78 34.2
2006 58 2,484.9 167.0 14.88 42.8
2007 79 3,530.5 221.3 15.95 44.7
2008 82 3,765.3 234.5 16.05 45.9
2009 126 6,216.7 393.8 15.78 49.3
2010 112 7,559.5 504.7 14.98 67.5
2011 113 9,204.8 614.3 14.98 81.5
2012 104 9,208.6 616.9 14.93 88.5
2013 61 6,528.3 443.4 14.72 107.0
2014 77 5,572.2 375.5 14.84 72.4
2015 60 5,031.7 346.8 14.51 83.9
2016 49 3,199.0 231.7 13.81 65.3
2017 45 3,749.6 272.7 13.75 83.3
2018 57 4,537.3 322.4 14.07 79.6
2019 47 3,961.6 285.0 13.90 84.3
2020 57 2,559.3 187.1 13.68 44.9
 
Short "Lifetime" it is. 
  • in recent years, I've only been avg'ing approx 4 rides a month, 
  • but that doesn't count commute or errand rides, typically less than 2 miles each, 
  •  
  • 2020 -- fewest total miles since 2006, 
  • 2020 -- shortest avg ride length since 2007, 
  • 2020 -- slowest avg pace since 2004. 
  •  
  • However, the 2020 rides do include a lot of sidewalk miles at the start and finish of most rides, and riding on the sidewalk is slower than riding on the smooth street surfaces.  
 
Favorite ride of the year (without thinking about it too much) -- the candidates are: 
 
Favorite photo(s) of the year -- the candidates are: 
 
Short rides are nice and quick, but I am currently (early January-2021) missing the feelings from the longer rides -- not to mention some of the sights from my favorite long rides.  I hope to do some longer rides again in 2021 -- whether they be solo or with others, or "with" "others" -- whether they be rando or "club" or informal groupings. 
 
And that is about as much retrospective thinking as I can muster. 
That's my story, and I think I'll be sticking to it.

Saturday, January 2, 2021

Year-End Retropective, Part 1?

I was thinking of doing year-in-review type of post, mentioning my favorite rides of the year and commenting the paucity of rides ridden and lack of any ride more than 93-miles in length.  I was thinking that I might write that, er, type that during the afternoon and evening of Dec-31-2020.  However, a friend in need contacted me at 12:45 pm on the 31st, and that is only and all I've been doing or thinking of since that moment. 
 
Will I do a 2020 retrospective? 
 
Don't count on it.